EUR/USD Outlook

EUR/USD Outlook

The US Dollar is currently going through a soft spell. Most markedly against EM, but also against the EUR. Upside in EUR/USD seems contained so far by the very easy monetary policy of the ECB. The question is if we are witnessing simply an extension of the ranging price movement as seen in the last […]

March consensus FX forecasts

March consensus FX forecasts

The March edition of the consensus FX forecasts report shows that spot US Dollar has weakened broadly since February. In the forecasts for 1 year the changes for he USD are less strong and more diverse though. Changes vs. February: Against the CAD and RUB the USD is expected to weaken a little more than […]

EURUSD outlook 2H15

EURUSD outlook 2H15

In December ‘14 I published an article on the 2015 outlook for EURUSD. Now that half of this year has passed it’s a good moment to look back at the FX forecasts made at that time and also look forward to the remainder of this year. In December last year spot EURUSD had already fallen […]

USD Bulls biding their time

USD Bulls biding their time

Global currency markets have becalmed somewhat the last month. You can read in the April Consensus FX Forecast Report if and how that has impacted recent currency forecasts. I give you a summary of the most important Consensus Opinions underlying these forecasts. One general remark is that it is to be expected that carry-trades will […]

Is AUD/USD still heading South?

Is AUD/USD still heading South?

The RBA has been one of the latest central banks to lower interest rates on February 3. It cut it’s Cash Target Rate with 25bp. from 2,5% to a record low 2,25%. The reaction in the spot market was relatively limited and reverted after one day to pre-cut levels around 0,7800 where it still is […]

Will EUR/USD hit parity this year?

Will EUR/USD hit parity this year?

Where the consensus outlook in the beginning of December for EUR/USD at the end of 2015 was at 1,18 it is currently just below 1,09. In just 1,5 month most banks were quick to lower their forecasts, adjusting them to the major events taking place. In the run up to the ECB meeting of 22 […]

EUR/USD outlook 2015

EUR/USD outlook 2015

Ik merk dat het woord “valutaoorlog” in toenemende mate in commentaren gebruikt wordt. Zowel door serieuze als minder serieuze bronnen. De serieuze bronnen haasten zich dan nog om wel te stellen dat het niet om een uitgesproken oorlog gaat. En inderdaad, zonder uitgesproken oorlogsverklaring is er geen sprake van oorlog. Opvallend verschil tussen de situatie […]