USD/TRY where to after the failed coup

USD/TRY where to after the failed coup

In my July consensus FX forecasts report USD/TRY was expected to rise to 3.11 in 12 months’ time. These forecasts were given prior to the attempted coup. Now, two weeks later, the domestic situation in Turkey is clearly stabilising and it is a fine moment to take a look at the opinions of ING and […]

FX Global Code of Conduct

FX Global Code of Conduct

Last month the BIS published the first phase of the FX Global Code. The final version is planned for completion by May 2017. What is this Global Code and what is the BIS trying to achieve by the establishment of this Code? Recent history. In the wake of the Libor Scandal a similar rate rigging […]

EUR/USD Outlook

EUR/USD Outlook

The US Dollar is currently going through a soft spell. Most markedly against EM, but also against the EUR. Upside in EUR/USD seems contained so far by the very easy monetary policy of the ECB. The question is if we are witnessing simply an extension of the ranging price movement as seen in the last […]

Rousseff impeachment: short-term strength for BRL

Rousseff impeachment: short-term strength for BRL

Will the ousting of President Rousseff help the Brazilian Real to strengthen or not? From a high of 4,15 at the end of January USD/BRL has fallen steadily to 3,55 level today. This strengthening came on the back of a broadly weaker USD, a rebounding oil price, renewed inflow into Emerging Markets in general and […]

March consensus FX forecasts

March consensus FX forecasts

The March edition of the consensus FX forecasts report shows that spot US Dollar has weakened broadly since February. In the forecasts for 1 year the changes for he USD are less strong and more diverse though. Changes vs. February: Against the CAD and RUB the USD is expected to weaken a little more than […]

Does China believe its own GDP figure?

Does China believe its own GDP figure?

Does China believe its own GDP figure? If not, then USD/CNY is heading for 7+. China is undertaking structural reforms and at the same time facing slowing growth. One of the biggest financial reforms recently is the introduction of greater market forces in the USD/CNY fixing process. This led immediately to a limited devaluation of […]

EURUSD outlook 2H15

EURUSD outlook 2H15

In December ‘14 I published an article on the 2015 outlook for EURUSD. Now that half of this year has passed it’s a good moment to look back at the FX forecasts made at that time and also look forward to the remainder of this year. In December last year spot EURUSD had already fallen […]

USD Bulls biding their time

USD Bulls biding their time

Global currency markets have becalmed somewhat the last month. You can read in the April Consensus FX Forecast Report if and how that has impacted recent currency forecasts. I give you a summary of the most important Consensus Opinions underlying these forecasts. One general remark is that it is to be expected that carry-trades will […]

Is AUD/USD still heading South?

Is AUD/USD still heading South?

The RBA has been one of the latest central banks to lower interest rates on February 3. It cut it’s Cash Target Rate with 25bp. from 2,5% to a record low 2,25%. The reaction in the spot market was relatively limited and reverted after one day to pre-cut levels around 0,7800 where it still is […]